Day 5: Underlying Causes of War
Three Levels of Analysis
Understanding war requires examining causes at multiple levels of human organization:
🧠 Individual
Leaders, psychology, decision-making
🏛️ State
Economic systems, political institutions
🌍 International
Anarchy, power dynamics, cooperation
🧠Individual Level Causes
People, especially leaders, decide if a country goes to war. They don’t always make these choices logically.
👁️Misperception & Crisis Escalation
Leaders may see situations incorrectly or struggle under stress, leading to flawed judgment and escalation.
👥Groupthink
When groups agree without questioning, they make bad decisions by discouraging individual responsibility.
🎯Over-Optimism
Leaders often think they can win wars quickly, leading to excessive confidence and risky behavior.
⚧️Gender Differences
Studies suggest men may be more confident about winning conflicts and more likely to initiate wars. Countries treating women better tend to be more peaceful.
Key Point: Individual choices, biases, and psychological factors significantly influence decisions that lead to war.
🏛️State Level Causes
Two primary state-level factors influence a nation’s inclination toward peace or war:
💰Economic Systems
⚒️Marxist Perspective
Capitalist economies may be more prone to conflict due to:
- Underpaying workers
- Competing for colonies
- Lenin’s interpretation of WWI causes
🕊️Liberal Perspective
Capitalist countries prefer peace because they desire open trade and economic prosperity through collaboration rather than conquest.
🗳️Political Institutions
🤝Democratic Peace Thesis
Democracies are less likely to engage in war with one another. Two explanations:
⚖️Institutional Constraints
Checks within the system prevent leaders from unilaterally declaring war. Citizens who bear war costs can elect and control leaders.
🎭Normative Constraints
Democratic leaders’ values and beliefs favor compromise and peace, while authoritarian leaders may use force for personal gain.
⚠️Eisenhower’s Warning (1961)
Military conflict can undermine democratic institutions. Risk of “garrison state” where life becomes heavily militarized due to military-industrial complex influence.
🔍Democratic Peace Limitations
- Democracies often fight non-democracies
- No consensus on why democratic peace occurs
- Policy misinterpretations can still lead to war
🌍International Level Causes
🌀International Anarchy
The lack of world government creates conditions that can lead to war in two ways:
🚪Permissive Condition
Allows other problems or feelings to push countries toward war without higher authority to intervene.
⚡Active Propellant
Actively pushes countries to take actions that make war more likely through mistrust and uncertainty.
🕵️How Anarchy Drives Conflict
🎭Concealment & Deception
Countries hide their true plans and power, making peaceful problem-solving difficult.
🤝Commitment Problems
Without world government, countries don’t trust each other to keep promises. May choose to fight now rather than risk being attacked later when weaker.
🎲The Prisoner’s Dilemma
A situation showing why groups might not cooperate even when it’s in their best interest:
🔒 The Setup
Two criminals caught, can’t communicate, each decision affects both outcomes
🤔 The Dilemma
Stay quiet or blame the other? Each fears the other will betray them first
⚖️UN Limitations
The United Nations tries to help solve problems peacefully, but can’t always protect countries or punish those who start violence, leaving leaders to worry about war.
Key Terms Glossary